From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”