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The direst possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by scientists, encompassing a searing 4C jump in mean temperatures to a two-metre surge in sea levels. A separate possibility envisions a plunge of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt food production and power requirements.

Plausible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These effects, a number of which are connected to critical climate thresholds, are seen as improbable but credible. The scientists explained that these projections addressed a shortfall in planning that had left the UK unprepared for extreme outcomes.

"The climate extremes we have outlined should not be seen as certainties, but they are credible," stated Nigel Arnell who directed the study. "The UK has been making preparations in the absence of the tools to test against extreme possibilities. We've now supplied policymakers what they need to plan for future conditions they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Range of Severe Conditions Projections

A second set of dire projections details the projected severity of severe conditions between now and the year 2100. These show that thermometer readings could soar in some months by up to 6C above average, while rainfall could be triple standard measurements.

The chance of the extreme scenarios happening cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what action will be taken to combat global warming and how the planet's climate will react. This research was likened to security threat evaluations or resilience checks for the banking sector.

Critical Possibility Details

• Severe Heating: Global temperatures exceeding 4C by 2100 could occur if emissions cuts breaks down or if strong feedback loops like the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source emit its huge repository of carbon. This would result in extreme and prolonged heat domes and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A major ocean current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is slowing down and showing signs of collapse due to global heating. A complete failure commencing by 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would struggle enormously and water supplies would be fundamentally reshaped," said the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic collapse rapidly, inundating low-lying areas. Unlike the other scenarios, this threat is already known by coastal engineers.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is sharply cut. This paradoxical outcome occurs because tiny specks from burning coal reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Planning for the Extreme

The severe models could be applied to guide the building of long-term infrastructure, including housing developments, nuclear power stations and water management networks. Knowledge about these climate risks could also speed the transition to reduce carbon pollution.

The study formulated the worst-case scenarios using a blend of past data and records, digital projections and climate physics. The scenarios omit potential global problems like the global food shortages and increased conflict.

This work was requested as part of a official climate resilience programme. Independent analyses have warned that too little consideration was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

Official experts has stated that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and examine the threats for four degrees. Past policy documents have been labeled being "inadequate" by some observers.

A national response commented: "The climate emergency is at the core of our national priorities, both building resilience and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is resilient for the impacts."